NOAA predicts rest of hurricane season will be active:


The Atlantic hurricane season 2021 is well advanced, and atmospheric and ocean conditions remain conducive to an above-average hurricane season, according to the annual mid-season update released by the Climate Prediction Center of the NOAA, a division of the National Weather Service.

The latest outlook indicates that the number of expected named storms (winds 39 mph or more) is 15 to 21, of which 7 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or more), of which 3 to 5 could become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or more). This updated outlook includes the five named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the fifth oldest named storm on record.

“After a record start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season shows no signs of abating as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., administrator of NOAA. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are essential to keep communities prepared for any threatening storm. “

NOAA scientists predict that the probability of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near par season and a 10% chance of a lower than par season.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not expected to be as hot as during the record-breaking 2020 season; however, reduced vertical wind shear and enhanced monsoon in West Africa all contribute to current conditions which can increase seasonal hurricane activity. These conditions are set against the backdrop of the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which has favored more active cyclonic seasons since 1995.


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